COMMENTARY July has historically been a strong month for the equity markets before seasonal volatility tends to show up in the late Summer and early Fall. While the month got off to a good start, concerns about a slowing economy and softer than expected Q2 earnings started to weigh on investor sentiment. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped above 18 at the end of the month, a level not seen since April. Healthy markets don’t go up in a straight line so some level of reaction to the incoming data is welcome. Looking ahead, all eyes will likely remain on the Federal Reserve and incoming economic data to help guide expectations around the economy and overall interest rate policy.
At the beginning of this year, we published our 2024 outlook and described our mood as cautiously optimistic. As we now enter the second half, we can say overall our instincts so far were correct — with respect to both the optimism and the caution. We view the next six months in a similar light.
Positioned At The Core For Transformational Change BLOK closed the quarter with a 7.83% (NAV return) rebound in the month of June and year-to-date performance of 18.66% (see standardized performance). The portfolio benefited from a massive two part $4.725 billion transformative 12-year deal with Coreweave that repriced the value of the entire Bitcoin Mining sector. This deal was highlighted in last month’s report, but Core Scientific (Core) expanded the deal late in June with an additional $1.225 billion add on deal. Other companies in the sector with the proper infrastructure to pursue HPC/AI (High Performance Computing and Artificial Intelligence) also now have plans to expand in this direction, but this sweet deal may be the strongest and is probably unique to Core. Given the excitement of the returns coming from the MAG7, Bitcoin and AI we are pleased to report that our focus on transformational companies in Blockchain and Tokenization technology delivered such strong momentum in this first half of 2024. While in this first half we are benefiting from the momentum of Core, we do not think this is a singular exponential situation. Again, investors need to think through the implications, consider the internet when it was in its nascent stage and how it completely changed industries and how people engage as consumers.
Three Trends to Know. One of the few certainties of investing is that markets don’t like uncertainty. And one of the biggest uncertainties always surrounds elections and their potential impact on the market outlook. Sometimes that impact is significant, sometimes less so, but it is often very difficult to forecast accurately.
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