Since 1950, the three-quarter period beginning in the fourth quarter of a midterm year has historically produced some of the strongest returns in the presidential cycle, despite periodic pullbacks.
Markets tend to dislike uncertainty. Once midterm elections are resolved, greater policy clarity has historically coincided with a more favorable stretch for equities.
Midterm Years and Market Pullbacks May Precede Opportunity
While growth-oriented indexes often experience volatility, the post-midterm record has historically been favorable.
Midterms and Markets: Stay Focused on the Bigger Picture
On average, the best-performing stretch of the presidential cycle is the three-quarter period that begins in the fourth quarter of the midterm year. Of course, no two market cycles are alike. Earnings, valuations, interest rates, economic conditions and geopolitical developments can all influence market returns. However, we believe periods of volatility often present opportunity and reinforce the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio aligned with long-term investment objectives.
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1Amplify Data, 11/4/2026.
The S&P 500 Index is a market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded U.S. companies. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
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