Amplify Insights

From Shopping Carts to Stock Charts: Holiday Investment Insights

Written by Amplify ETFs | Oct 28, 2025 9:13:59 PM
AI Meets E-Commerce to Shape Holiday Market Trends
 

As the holiday season approaches, digital sleigh bells are ringing louder than ever—and this year, artificial intelligence is amplifying the sound.

E-commerce continues to transform how consumers shop and how investors strategize, but 2025 marks a turning point: generative AI shopping assistants and recommendation engines are driving a surge in online holiday spending, with traffic from AI tools forecast to be up over 500% year-over-year.1

Record online sales, tech-driven strategies, and shifting consumer behaviors offer fresh insights—and potential portfolio implications. For market observers, understanding these tech-driven trends is critical as e-commerce and AI together reshape the retail landscape.

E-Commerce Growth Still Strong with New Records

 
 
 
 
 

2025 Holiday Shopping Statistics, Trends & Forecast | Adobe

Adobe Analytics projects U.S. online holiday sales (Nov. 1-Dec. 31st) to hit $253.4 billion, a 5.3% year-over-year increase from 2024. This may represent a resilient consumer base navigating economic uncertainty and tariff pressures. The 5-day period starting on Thanksgiving, Cyber Week, alone is expected to generate $43.7 billion, with Cyber Monday the biggest shopping day of the year, topping $14.2 billion, and Black Friday reaching $11.7 billion.1

2025 Holiday Shopping Statistics, Trends & Forecast | Adobe

Key Drivers of 2025 Online Holiday Shopping

 Generative AI Becomes a Shopping Assistant
 
  • AI-driven traffic to retail sites is forecast to surge 517% year-over-year.1
  • Walmart2 is working to capitalize on this trend and recently partnered with OpenAI to integrate AI-powered shopping through ChatGPT. In other words, customers will soon be able to shop directly in ChatGPT using Walmart’s Instant Checkout integration, ask for product ideas, receive curated recommendations, and auto apply Walmart + benefits when available.3 Notably, Walmart’s global online sales are up about 25% year-over-year. The ChatGPT integration announcement sent Walmart’s stock up over 5% to an all-time high. It’d be remiss not to mention Amazon4, which is also piloting its own AI assistant.5
  • Consumers are using AI for research (53%), product recommendations (40%), deal finding 36%, and gift inspiration (30%), reshaping the path to purchase.5 

 

 
 Mobile & Digital Commerce Takes the Lead
 
  • Mobile devices will account for 56.1% of online spend, or $142.7 billion, up from 40% during the  2020 holiday season, cementing their role as the dominant online shopping platform. Retailers prioritizing mobile optimization and app experiences may be better positioned.6

 

 
 Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) Expands
 
  • BNPL services is projected to drive $20.2 billion in online spend, up 11% year over year (YoY), with nearly 80% of transactions coming from mobile devices. This trend reflects consumers’ desire for flexibility amid economic uncertainty.6

 

 Aggressive Discounting Fuels Trade-Up
 
  • Discounts are anticipated to peak at 28% off listed prices, especially during Cyber Week. Electronics, toys, and apparel will see the deepest markdowns, encouraging shoppers to “trade up” to premium products.6


Emerging Consumer Trends

Shoppers are embracing:

  • Hyper-personalized experiences powered by AI.
  • Mobile & Digital buying and payments.
  • Social commerce, with influencer-driven sales.
  • Extended shopping seasons, starting in October.

Investor Takeaways

  • Retail Tech Leaders: Companies leveraging AI partnerships and integrations, mobile-first strategies, and BNPL integrations may be positioned for growth.
  • Logistics & Delivery: Faster, flexible fulfillment remains a competitive edge.

The Bottom Line:

Despite economic volatility this year, holiday e-commerce in 2025 is set to break records, supported by AI-powered search and personalization, mobile and digital dominance, and flexible payment options. For investors, these trends underscore the potential importance of backing retailers and platforms that innovate at the intersection of technology and consumer convenience.

 

Related ETFs

 

1 2025 Holiday Shopping Statistics, Trends & Forecast | Adobe
2 Amplify ETFs IBUY fund is comprised of 0.53% of Walmart as of 10/22/25.
3 Walmart partners with OpenAI to bring AI-assisted shopping to millions I MSN
4  Amplify ETFs IBUY fund is comprised of 2.44% of Amazon as of 10/22/25.
5 https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/walmart-partners-with-openai-to-bring-ai-assisted-shopping-to-millions/ar-AA1OG8Nd
6 https://news.adobe.com/news/2025/10/adobe-us-holiday-shopping-season-cross-250-billion-online-rising-yoyg 5.3% YoY 


Carefully consider the Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. This and other information can be found in the Fund’s statutory and summary prospectuses, which may be obtained at AmplifyETFs.com. Read the prospectus carefully before investing.

Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Shares of any ETF are bought and sold at market price (not NAV), may trade at a discount or premium to NAV and are not individually redeemed from the Fund. Brokerage commissions will reduce returns.

Amplify ETFs are distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC.

 
 
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