There is a common saying among investors that markets take the stairs up and the elevator down. This is because the long-term trends that drive markets higher tend to be slow moving and compound over time, whereas the events that create short-term panic tend to be sudden and unexpected. At the same time, history shows that even new market lows tend to be higher than previous peaks. In other words, markets often take the stairs up several floors before riding the elevator down one or two levels. For long-term investors, understanding this dynamic in the current environment is critical to staying focused on important financial goals. A more technical way to frame this dynamic involves the distinction between returns and volatility. Returns are simply the gains that investors experience in their portfolios which, ideally, should be measured over time frames that capture the growth in asset prices across important phases of the market and business cycle. In contrast, volatility measures how much prices swing over days, weeks, or months. These swings often reflect the gap between reality and expectations for investors. Given that expectations can shift wildly in both directions, it should not be surprising that market prices fluctuate as much as they do.=
Blockchain as a technology is more than just the transfer of value using Bitcoin or Ethereum. It helps industries operate more efficiently as a whole. In last month’s report we highlighted the effectiveness of the blockchain at banks, like JP Morgan, who used tokenization to transfer value more efficiently over their system. We believe that as the financial rails with regulatory scrutiny prove that tokenization can work to store and save value, other industries will embrace the benefits to help solve their own defined issues. We have seen evidence of this lately through the acceleration of patent filing on Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) by many major firms.
The stock market has been supported by a healthier-than-expected economy this year, generating returns that have helped many portfolios to partially recover from last year’s bear market. Investors now hope these growth trends will translate into stronger corporate earnings since, in the long run, markets tend to follow the same trajectory as profits. With the future of the economy still uncertain, what signs are there that companies might begin to see improved profitability? The third quarter earnings season is nearly wrapped up with almost all S&P 500 companies reporting their results. This is likely to be the first quarter of positive growth in a year, a notable inflection point that mirrors the surprising stability of the underlying economy. Consensus Wall Street estimates are for earnings to be flat this year at about $217 per share but to then rebound in 2024 by 11%. While this is somewhat at odds with economic forecasts for slowing growth in the coming quarters, it’s safe to say that any acceleration in earnings would be welcomed by investors.
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