It’s easy to look back at previous market selloffs and wonder how market participants did not see all the warning signs of an imminent selloff. But the very nature of black swan events makes them difficult, if not impossible, to predict. Below are a handful of events that sparked selloffs in the equity markets that few could have predicted.
Investors have navigated a difficult market all year and the third quarter was no exception. Although markets have turned around a bit at the start of October, all major indices ended the last quarter in bear market territory. The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq declined 5.3%, 6.7%, and 4.1%, respectively, from July to September. Interest rates jumped with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing above 4% on an intra-day basis, the highest level since 2008. The challenges of persistently high inflation and slowing growth have continued to impact the expectations of both investors and policymakers. In times like these, investors might naturally prefer to wait until it feels comfortable to invest, and even experienced investors may wonder if markets will ever turn around. This is why it’s important to remind ourselves that while bear markets are unpleasant, they also create opportunities for long-term investors. The valuations of major indices, sectors and styles are at their most attractive levels in years, and bond yields are finally at levels that can support portfolio income. Interest rates are rising after declining for 40 years Source: Clearnomics, Federal Reserve A key principle of investing is that achieving long-term returns doesn’t just involve risk – it requires it. This is true whether markets are down due to the economy, geopolitics, a pandemic, or any of the hundreds of investor concerns over the past few decades. After all, if staying invested were easy, everyone would do it and there would be no opportunities at all. History shows that those investors who have the discipline and fortitude to handle market pullbacks are more often than not rewarded. At the same time, it’s also important to understand what is driving these market dynamics. Below, we highlight three important insights that will continue to affect markets and the economy through the remainder of 2022 and beyond. Markets had rallied beginning in June but abruptly reversed course in late August. The turn in the market coincided with Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole during which he emphasized that the Fed would continue to fight inflation by keeping interest rates higher for longer. This message was then reiterated at the Fed’s September meeting with the third 75 basis point hike in a row and higher projections through 2023. This jump in both policy and market rates is breaking a 40-year pattern of declining interest rates. It’s no wonder that financial markets have been volatile as they adjust to a higher cost of capital and slower economic growth. Regardless, both history and the summer period show that markets can move forward once they digest these new expectations. The stock market is adjusting to higher inflation and rising rates Source: Clearnomics, Standar & Poor’s While the first three quarters of this year have experienced poor returns, it’s important to maintain perspective on the past few years. Last year experienced some of the best returns as the world emerged from the pandemic. In all, markets are still quite positive since 2020 and the S&P 500 has gained over 40% since the beginning of 2019. Since markets never move in a straight line, it’s important for investors to take the good with the bad in order to not overreact to short-term events. There is also some good news among the poor economic numbers. Energy prices plummeted throughout the third quarter, reversing much of the effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on oil and gas markets. This helped to bring gasoline prices down, although they are still higher than during any other period over the past decade. Headline inflation – which includes food and energy – has eased as a result. Economists and policymakers continue to focus on “core” inflation which re-accelerated in August, a sign that price pressures have broadened and continue to hurt consumer pocketbooks. This is a key reason the Fed has doubled down on its inflation fight. The Fed expects to keep rates higher for longer Source: Clearnomics, Standar & Poor’s The Fed has communicated that it will keep interest rates higher for longer. This has raised investor concerns over whether the Fed can bring down inflation without creating a deep recession – a so-called “soft landing” versus a “hard landing.” This is a difficult balancing act for the Fed as they try to achieve their dual mandate of both price stability and maximum employment. The markets will continue to adjust to these new expectations in the coming months. One of the main effects of higher interest rates is rising mortgage costs. The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now 6.7% – the highest since the mid-2000s and far above the average of 4% since the last housing bubble. Housing activity is slowing across the board from building permits to housing starts, and from refinancing activity to existing home sales. Staying Invested in Q4 If history teaches us anything, it’s that fighting the urge to overreact to short-term events is one of the keys to long-term investor success. Since the Great Depression nearly a century ago, the market has trended upward over time, following the path of economic growth. Along the way, there have been countless major historical challenges to overcome from wars to bear markets. When zoomed out, these look like blips compared to the gains investors achieved over years and decades. The ongoing bear market is challenging and unpleasant. However, it is no reason for investors to lose sight of their financial goals. In fact, those investors with the discipline and patience to take advantage of opportunities will likely be rewarded in the long run. ________________________________________________________________________________________ Carefully consider the Fund’s investment objectives, risk factors, charges, and expenses before investing. This and additional information can be found in Amplify Funds statutory and summary prospectus, which may be obtained above or by calling 855-267-3837, or by visiting AmplifyETFs.com. Read the prospectus carefully before investing. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Shares of any ETF are bought and sold at market price (not NAV), may trade at a discount or premium to NAV and are not individually redeemed from the Fund. Brokerage commissions will reduce returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Amplify ETFs are distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC.
CNBS Portfolio Manager Tim Seymour shares his thoughts on cannabis trends of the USA market in the CNBS 3rd quarter report of 2022. Learn more about Amplify Seymour Cannabis ETF (CNBS), including the top 10 holdings, region allocations, and market segments.
Kevin Simpson, Portfolio Manager of our DIVO and IDVO ETF, comes on to share his thoughts about the 3rd quarter portfolio positioning of DIVO and IDVO in 2022. Learn more about Amplify CWP Enhanced Dividend Income ETF (DIVO) and Amplify International Enhanced Dividend Income ETF (IDVO) including the top 10 holdings and yield information.
BLOK Portfolio Manager Mike Venuto shares his thoughts on BLOK ETF and the blockchain industry in the 3rd quarter report. Click HERE for BLOK’s prospectus. Learn more about Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF (BLOK), including the top 10 holdings, blockchain industry allocations, and more.
Major stock market indices rebounded in October as investors hoped for a slowdown in the pace of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes. During the month, the S&P 500 gained 8.0% and its year-to-date loss was cut to 18.8%, just slightly better than bear market levels. The Dow ended just above correction territory with a 9.9% year-to-date decline while the Nasdaq, consisting of hard-hit tech stocks, gained 3.9% in October to reach a year-to-date pullback of 29.8%. This occurred despite a jump in interest rates with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising above 4%. What’s driving optimism in markets and how should long-term investors maintain perspective? The economy grew in the third quarter after a tough first half of the year Source: Clearnomics, U.S. BEA Important economic data released in October shed light on how businesses and households are doing in this challenging inflationary environment. After the economy shrank slightly the first half of the year, declining 1.6% and 0.6% in the first and second quarters, respectively, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for the third quarter showed a swing to growth of 2.6% (these are quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted annual rates that account for inflation). This exceeds economists’ prior estimates of 2.4% and softens concerns that we may already be in a recession. While GDP is backward looking and reflect many factors that are already known, this is nonetheless a welcome sign. While this growth rate is nothing to write home about and doesn’t change the fact that many parts of the economy are struggling, it is still positive and helps to provide perspective. The poor GDP numbers earlier this year were nowhere close to the initial stages of the pandemic, when GDP fell 30% at an annualized rate, or during 2008 when the financial system was on the brink of collapse. The chart above shows the wide range of economic growth rates since World War II and how moderate recent numbers have been despite the level of investor concern. It’s also important to keep in mind that across history, recessions occur periodically and serve as an “economic reset,” paving the way for potential future growth. Consumer spending is robust but rate-sensitive sectors are struggling Source: Clearnomics, U.S. BEA The details of the GDP report show that consumer spending decelerated but still contributed one percentage point to growth. Gross private domestic investment fell last quarter due largely to a struggling housing market, reducing headline GDP by 1.6 percentage points. This is consistent with rising rates and softening demand leading to the largest decline in the Case-Shiller housing index since the 2008 housing crisis. Beyond housing, business spending on equipment and intellectual property investment added about half of one percent to GDP. Government spending rose slightly, contributing 0.4%. Finally, rising exports paired with a reduction in imports buoyed production for the third quarter despite the strengthening U.S. dollar. This shift in the trade numbers reverses the biggest driver of negative growth in the first quarter, highlighting how much these numbers can change from quarter to quarter. The natural question for investors is how positive economic numbers impact Fed rate decisions. Good news can often be interpreted as bad news by the market since it could be evidence that the economy can withstand higher rates as the Fed combats inflation. Thus, the Fed may be able to increase interest rates with a lower risk of inducing a recession, especially with the reported unemployment rate still so low. This struggle with interpreting the data and trying to predict what the Fed may do next, is what has caused markets to swing all year. In fact, this occurs every rate hike cycle and began last year as the Fed began to “taper” its asset purchase program. The irony is that the recent market rebound has been driven by the hope the Fed may begin to slow its pace of rate hikes, despite the positive economic numbers. Some Fed officials have argued for “front-loading” rate hikes and measuring their effects over time. So far, investors, economists and the Fed have all been overly optimistic about both inflation and the path of rate hikes, forcing upward adjustments to these numbers throughout the year. While falling inflation and a reversal in Fed policy would be a welcome sign were they to occur, it’s important for long-term investors to maintain a level-headed view of the data to avoid swinging between the manic pessimism and optimism of the market. There are still many short-term questions on how this part of the business cycle will play out and whether strong economic data is bad for markets. However, in the long run, markets have tended to follow economic growth and corporate earnings. Focusing on years and decades, rather than days or months, can help to properly guide investors toward their financial goals. ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ Carefully consider the Fund’s investment objectives, risk factors, charges, and expenses before investing. This and additional information can be found in Amplify Funds statutory and summary prospectus, which may be obtained above or by calling 855-267-3837, or by visiting AmplifyETFs.com. Read the prospectus carefully before investing. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Shares of any ETF are bought and sold at market price (not NAV), may trade at a discount or premium to NAV and are not individually redeemed from the Fund. Brokerage commissions will reduce returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Amplify ETFs are distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC.
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