COMMENTARY If you slept through the month of April and looked at levels in the equity markets when you awoke at the end of the month, you might have thought you didn’t miss much at all. The S&P 500 was essentially flat for the month while the Nasdaq 100 managed a small gain. In the middle was a wild ride that kicked off with the tariff announcements on April 2nd. What followed was one of the swiftest, albeit orderly, market selloffs we’ve seen in a long time. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) crossed 60, indicating a high aversion to risk, but the traditional safe-haven of US Treasuries actually saw rates increase by mid-month to nearly 4.5% on the 10-year. The flight-to-safety was most pronounced in gold, but as the White House began to provide additional clarity around tariffs, negotiations, and exemptions for key-industries, investors waded back into equities that staged a 7-day (and counting) rally into month-end and appear to be optimistic that the worst is behind us.
COMMENTARY The equity market rally that began in mid-April continued into May as progress on tariff negotiations, or delays on implementation, gave investors hope that the worst was behind. By mid-May, the S&P 500 had not only recovered its earlier losses but also turned positive for the year, ultimately notching the best returns for May since 1992. The CBOE Volatility Index (a measure of uncertainty in the equity markets) continued to fall throughout the month as well, underpinning an increasing level of optimism for investors though many remain watchful of developments in trade policy and economic indicators that may influence market trajectories in the coming weeks and months.
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