RECAP Amplify CWP Enhanced Dividend Income ETF (DIVO) received a 5-star Morningstar RatingTM for the overall period based on risk-adjusted return among 82 funds in the Derivative Income category (as of 06/30/23). DIVO returned 4.70% on a net asset value (NAV) compared to its benchmarks, the S&P 500 TR Index at 6.61% and the CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index at 2.10% for month ending June 30, 2023. The industrials sector (11.23%) contributed most significantly to DIVO’s return for the month of June 2023, followed by energy (10.90%) and financials (16.54%). Positions that contributed most significantly included Deere & Co. (3.16%), Apple Inc. (4.63%), and Visa Inc. (5.42%). Positions that detracted most significantly included General Mills Inc. (2.79%) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (4.63%), respectively. The portfolio held nine covered calls1 at the end of June 2023: Deere & Co., Duke Energy Corp., General Mills Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Johnson & Johnson, Marathon Pete Corp., Schlumberger Ltd., UnitedHealth Group Inc., and United Parcel Service Inc.
RECAP Amplify Natural Resources Dividend Income ETF (NDIV) seeks investment results that generally correspond to the price and yield of the EQM Natural Resources Dividend Income Index. The Index is comprised of dividend-paying U.S. exchange-listed equities operating primarily in the natural resource and commodity-related industries such as: energy, chemicals, agriculture, metals & mining, paper products, and timber. NDIV returned 8.60% on a net asset value (NAV) compared to its benchmark, the EQM Natural Resources Dividend Income Index at 8.72% for the month, as of June 30, 2023. The oil, gas & consumable fuels (76.63%) contributed most significantly to NDIV's return for the month of June 2023, followed by chemicals (13.57%), metals & mining (8.31%) and paper & forest products (1.49%). Positions that contributed most significantly included Petroleo Brasileiro (6.00%), Equinor ASA (3.96%) and Antero Midstream Corp. (3.16%). Positions that detracted most significantly included ICL Group Ltd. (2.45%).
The past few years are proof that market sentiment can turn on a dime. This year’s strong market rally, with the S&P 500 rising 15.9% and the Nasdaq gaining 31.7% in the first half of the year, has been driven by technology stocks, improving inflation, and the absence of a recession. While it may be too early to tell, some investors believe we are in the midst of a new bull market. However, with the Fed and other central banks signaling further rate hikes to return inflation to 2%, others are questioning the sustainability of this year’s rally. For long-term investors, who should be less concerned by day-to-day market swings, what matters more than what we call this market period is the level of valuations and interest rates. What are these factors signaling about achieving financial goals in the coming years? It’s important to start by discussing why valuation measures matter to long-term investors. Simply put, valuations are the best tools that investors have to gauge the attractiveness of the stock market over years and decades. This contrasts with much shorter time frames during which global headlines, industry news, and company-specific events can dominate market movements. These concerns eventually settle and fade, leaving only traces of their impacts on asset prices, underlying fundamentals, or both. Unlike stock prices on their own, valuations don’t just tell you how much something costs, but what you get for your money in terms of earnings, book value, cash flow, dividends, and other measures. After all, holding shares of a company means you are entitled to a portion of its profitability, so paying an appropriate price can improve the odds of future growth. Valuations are correlated with long-term portfolio returns for this reason – i.e., buying when the market is cheap can improve the chances of success, and buying when the market is relatively expensive can reduce future returns. What do valuations tell us today? On the surface, broad stock market valuations are above both their recent lows and historic averages. The price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 (based on next-twelve-month earnings) is 19.1x, well above the average of 15.6x since the mid-1980s. This metric only briefly fell to 15.3x during last year’s bear market crash before rebounding immediately. These numbers are highly dependent on the market and economic cycle and can therefore fluctuate over time. For example, the average over the past decade has been considerably higher at 17.6x, making it more difficult to interpret these valuation metrics. Interest rates also impact stock prices directly through financial markets and investor preferences. When rates are higher, bonds become more attractive relative to stocks since they can generate more income. The resulting headwind on stocks can be interpreted as investors shifting their portfolios toward bonds, or equivalently that stock prices should adjust so that their “yields” rise to new levels. The first chart highlights this relationship by focusing on the earnings yield of the S&P 500, which is just the inverse of the P/E ratio. This measure tells us how much in corporate earnings an investor is “yielding” for every dollar they invest, allowing us to think of stocks in a bond-like way. Specifically, the S&P 500 has an earnings yield of 5.2% compared to 10-year Treasury bonds yielding around 4%. The gap between these two measures – a gauge of the relative attractiveness of stocks over bonds, has fallen as interest rates have risen. On the surface, these measures suggest the market is no longer cheap, which is to be expected after this year’s significant rallies. However, there are big caveats to the preceding discussion. One reason this may be harder to interpret today is that the market’s earnings yield has worsened not only because stock prices have risen, but also because earnings expectations have been flat. However, if the economy does avoid a recession and begins to accelerate, corporate earnings could also recover. This would boost earnings yields, making stocks more attractive again. Given that even the most negative economic forecasts expect only a shallow and short-lived recession, it may be important to not focus too much on near-term earnings outlooks when interpreting valuation measures. Also, longer-term interest rates have been more stable this year despite the possibility of further Fed rate hikes. This could improve the comparison between stocks and bonds over time as well. While valuations are not short-term market timing tools, they are among the most important metrics for constructing long run portfolios that include both stocks and bonds. This is especially true as earnings growth recovers and interest rates stabilize. Investors should focus more on valuations than day-to-day headlines in order to stay focused on their financial goals.
MARKET COMMENTARY Emerging market equities delivered positive returns for the third consecutive quarter with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index* returning 0.90% for Q2. Global and domestic markets delivered stronger returns with the MSCI All Country World Index* delivering 2.95% and S&P 500 rising 8.74%.
MARKET COMMENTARY The second quarter of 2023 was filled with murky headlines following the U.S. banking crisis, debt ceiling drama, and the Fed signaling its continued rate hikes amid warnings of an imminent recession – a recession that, once again, did not materialize. At quarter end, however, there was still no economic downturn in sight and most major market indices remained in positive territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Index (TR) returned 3.97%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 13.05% and the S&P 500 delivered 8.74%. Internationally, markets eked out positive returns as well. The MSCI EAFE International Index* returned 2.95% while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index* returned 0.90%. There was much good news for online retail companies. The U.S. unemployment rate remained between 3.4% and 3.7%, and the labor participation rate among workers aged 25-54 stood at a strong 83.4%, the highest level since 2007. Consumer spending remained strong, with the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco estimating that households still have sufficient savings to support current spending levels through the end of 2023. E-commerce sales in the first quarter of 2023 accounted for 15.1% of total sales, as announced by the Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce on May 18th. The estimate of U.S. retail ecommerce sales for the first quarter of 2023 (adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes) was $272.6 billion, an increase of 3.0 percent (±0.7%) from the fourth quarter of 2022. Total retail sales for the first quarter of 2023 were estimated at $1,799.5 billion, an increase of 0.9 percent (±0.4%) from the fourth quarter of 2022. IBUY fared well in this environment with top performers contributing to returns including Carvana (164.76%), Wayfair (89.31%) and Overstock.com (60.68%). Click HERE for IBUY’s top 10 holdings. Shares of online used car dealer, Carvana, saw quite a turnaround in 2023. Last quarter, Carvana’s stock fell in part because used car prices tumbled and interest rates rose, leaving the company with depreciating inventory that became more expensive for customers to buy. Yet in Q2, used car prices rebounded, according to the Consumer Price Index, which helped Carvana make a profit on its inventory. Shares rose by 100.6% in June as Carvana received an upgraded credit rating on its repackaged auto loans. Shares of online furniture retailer Wayfair benefited from a favorable sales update amid the bankruptcy of Bed Bath & Beyond, one its biggest competitors. Sales trends for the company improved throughout the quarter. Shares of online retailer Overstock.com also benefited from the bankruptcy of Bed Bath & Beyond as Overstock acquired the defunct retailer’s name, along with its website and domain names, vast customer database and loyalty-program data. Overstock’s plan is to eventually operate solely as Bed Bath and Beyond online. Detractors on performance for the period included Shutterstock (-32.60%), 1-800-FLOWERS.com (- 32.17%) and Revolve Group (-37.64%). While Shutterstock, online provider of stock photography, was one of IBUY’s top performers in Q1 based on its initiatives to expand generative AI in its product offerings, shares fell in Q2 as investors took the opportunity to take their gains and sell. Despite the drop, shares ended the quarter reasonably priced at 11.5 times forward earnings. Floral and gift online retailer 1-800-FLOWERS saw its total revenue drop while its gross profit margins rose. The company recently acquired Things Remembered and Smart Gift to extend its offerings in the non-perishable gift categories. The company has yet to gain its momentum in this space, which accounts for only 20% of its total revenue. Online apparel company Revolve Group shares fell following earnings declines over the last year due to trends affecting other online apparel businesses, yet its business model has helped it maintain profits and attractive gross margins. In our view, while we can’t predict the future, we remain positive about the outlook for U.S. online retail companies as indicators point to a resilient economy. While economic indicators may be mixed, those investors who have not listened to the pundits predicting disaster over the last three consecutive quarters have been rewarded. Carefully consider the Fund’s investment objectives, risk factors, charges and expenses before investing. This and additional information can be found in the Funds’ statutory and summary prospectus, which may be obtained by calling 855-267-3837 or by visiting AmplifyETFs.com. Read the prospectus carefully before investing. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. The fund is new with limited operating history. Narrowly focused investments typically exhibit higher volatility. A portfolio concentrated in a single industry, such as the online retail industry, makes it vulnerable to factors affecting the industry. The Fund may face more risks than if it were diversified broadly over numerous industries or sectors. Investments in consumer discretionary companies are tied closely to the performance of the overall domestic and international economy, interest rates, competition, and consumer confidence. Online retail companies are subject to risks of consumer demand and sensitivity to profit margins. Additionally, technology and internet companies are subject to rapidly changing technologies; short product life cycles; fierce competition; aggressive pricing and reduced profit margins; the loss of patent, copyright, and trademark protections; cyclical market patterns; evolving industry standards; and frequent new product introductions. Information technology companies may be smaller and less experienced companies, with limited product lines, markets or financial resources and fewer experienced management or marketing personnel. Stocks of many internet companies have exceptionally high price-to-earnings ratios with little or no earnings histories. Information technology company stocks, especially those which are internet related, have experienced extreme price and volume fluctuations that are often unrelated to their operating performance. The Fund is non-diversified, meaning it may concentrate its assets in fewer individual holdings than a diversified fund. Investments in smaller companies tend to have limited liquidity and greater price volatility than large-capitalization companies. Investments in foreign securities involve greater volatility and political, economic, and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. The Fund’s return may not match or achieve a high degree of correlation with the return of the underlying Index. To the extent the Fund utilizes a sampling approach, it may experience tracking error to a greater extent than if the Fund had sought to replicate the Index. EQM Indexes is the Index Provider for the Fund. EQM Indexes is not affiliated with the Trust, the Investment Adviser or the distributor. The Investment Adviser has entered into a license agreement with EQM Indexes to use the Online Retail Index. The Fund is entitled to use its Index pursuant to a sublicensing arrangement with the Investment Adviser. Amplify Investments LLC serves as the investment advisor and Penserra Capital Management LLC serves as sub advisor to the fund. Amplify ETFs are distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC
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