We find it wonderful that so many new investors are embracing the ease of direct exposure through Spot ETFs. Over the past 6 years we have argued that bitcoin and digital assets are the first new asset class for investors in generations. Most importantly, bitcoin is a natural hedge against any follow-on banking crisis, concerns about excess printing of the US dollar, and inflation. As a result, at certain times when equity markets have weakened, the Fund’s bitcoin exposure has hedged the price decline held by the Fund’s exposure to transforming companies like Block Inc (SQ), Nu Holdings (NU), and Roblox Corp (RBLX). The fact is that growth companies can carry high beta risk, so trading or holding a non-correlated asset or arguably even an inversely correlated asset class can help to manage certain types of systemic risks. To be clear, we do not hold Bitcoin directly in the Fund– it comes through holdings in Spot ETFs, MicroStrategy (MSTR), and companies in the Bitcoin mining industry. Food For Thought: What's Up With The Supply Chain? Equally as important is how companies like Accenture (ACN), Visa (V), and International Business Machines (IBM) are reinventing themselves through investments in companies aligned with Blockchain technology. For example, IBM’s global food supply tracking efforts have made meaningful progress. In a Fresh Produce Journal article, Michael Barker highlights that the SecQuAL project using the IBM platform “finds multiple benefits for the tomato and wider fresh produce industry in its use of blockchain technology that secures storage and transfer of data to form a thread detailing the whole process from farm to fork”.1 Wrapping the IBM brand as an “IBM Trust” that implements blockchain technology helps build confidence that the supply chain solutions packaged by the company are secure, efficient, and with integrity. Let’s face it, our supply chain has many different problems that impact trillions of dollars. Why IBM? Why not! Again, we highlight IBM’s progress with developing its position in blockchain technology to explain the impact that will come from this technology. It will support the production of trillions of dollars’ worth of goods and services, as it affects industries like manufacturing, healthcare, and yes, asset management. This is why tokenization is so important and why a portfolio needs both equities and Spot Bitcoin involved in the build out of digital assets. Think about blockchain as the distributed ledger that creates enduring and unalterable records that can be programed as tokens. Forget price! Think about the benefits of transparent information on a real time basis, that is reliable because it has been verified independently and triple checked. Also, let’s not forget that Bitcoin may not be the only solution that changes this world.
COMMENTARY Another month and another new all-time high for the equity markets as measured by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. While the spotlight predominantly fell on the "Magnificent 7" as the calendar ushered in 2024, a quiet transformation was happening beneath the surface. Market breadth is no longer just concentrated in 7 high flying stocks as indices like the Equal Weight S&P 500 and S&P 400 Mid Cap finally surpassed previous highs set in 2021. Even though inflation, the Fed, elections, and geopolitical tensions continue to be closely watched by investors, the equity market has continued to take it in stride.
First Quarter 2024 Trends are Strong BLOK rallied 8.35% in March, bringing the YTD and first quarter NAV return to 21.72% (see performance). The Fund was unusually active relative to our historic patterns. In an effort to maintain the Fund’s high correlation with Bitcoin, while also remaining focused on the core mandate (investing in public companies that are dedicated to building out the infrastructure around blockchain and “Public Digital Property”), we steadily trimmed stocks like MicroStrategy, Coinbase, and Cleanspark, which appeared ahead of themselves. This activity was relatively systematic in nature as it followed established risk controls and our discipline to remain diversified in our approach. Bitcoin Halving Historic Outcomes The Bitcoin halving is scheduled to take place on or around April 19th and it is sure to inspire and surprise! If Bitcoin price follows past trends and rises to new highs, miners will distinguish themselves through the efficiency with which their management teams have scaled their business, but it will certainly not be without drama. This is why we have chosen to diversify across strategic approaches to business, management teams, and geography. In fact, we fully expect to be surprised both on the upside and the downside by the many different variables to this business. However, while the media may make a big deal about the much-anticipated “post-halving rally,” the smart management teams are already looking out to 2028. Bitcoin Mined Per Block Over Time Source: CME group, Bitcoin Halving 2024 – This Time It's Different', April 2024. Historically, each halving has brought extraordinary rallies in the months preceding and following the change in supply. Like a small-cap company that expands its market capitalization, we expect the liquidity in the asset class to reduce some of the volatility as institutions tend to absorb the dips. Notably, in the 365 calendar days after the November 28, 2012 halving, when the reward was cut from 50 BTC to 25 BTC, bitcoin prices rose 8,447%. In the year following the July 9, 2016, halving, bitcoin prices rose a more modest but still impressive 283%, and block reward was reduced to 12.5 BTC. In the 12 months after the May 11, 2020, halving, where reward was cut to 6.25 BTC per block, bitcoin price jumped 527%. Obviously, as the warning goes, past performance is not indicative of future outcomes, so please do not ask us to come up with a forecast on price. Bottom line, before we talk $100,000, we must clear $75,000, and who knows whether we’ll go lower before we go higher. However, the math looks very compelling. As a result of the halving, the bitcoin network in aggregate will only produce $27 million in bitcoin a day after April 19th (the basic math is $60,000 price times 450 bitcoin). This ends up providing much of the supply beyond regular trading activity from wallets and traders. Please do not confuse us as maximalists in the way of bitcoin. As portfolio managers, we believe there are times to overweight the asset class and times to be more modest. However...
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