The first quarter of 2025 was characterized by significant volatility in long-term Treasury yields, primarily driven by the Trump administration's tariff policies. We observed the 30-year Treasury yield fluctuating between a high of 4.976% and a low of 3.929%, representing a spread of more than 50 basis points during this period.
COMMENTARY If you slept through the month of April and looked at levels in the equity markets when you awoke at the end of the month, you might have thought you didn’t miss much at all. The S&P 500 was essentially flat for the month while the Nasdaq 100 managed a small gain. In the middle was a wild ride that kicked off with the tariff announcements on April 2nd. What followed was one of the swiftest, albeit orderly, market selloffs we’ve seen in a long time. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) crossed 60, indicating a high aversion to risk, but the traditional safe-haven of US Treasuries actually saw rates increase by mid-month to nearly 4.5% on the 10-year. The flight-to-safety was most pronounced in gold, but as the White House began to provide additional clarity around tariffs, negotiations, and exemptions for key-industries, investors waded back into equities that staged a 7-day (and counting) rally into month-end and appear to be optimistic that the worst is behind us.
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