Context for investors navigating a turbulent start to 2026 - Market and Economic Update

Audio Commentary by Tim Seymour

First Quarter 2026 Commentary

Digital Assets Monthly

After bouncing from gains to losses to start the year, equities ended the month of March firmly in the red, driven by geopolitical uncertainties that have dominated headlines all month. Volatility (CBOE Volatility Index) spiked from roughly ~20 at the end of February to more than 31, before ultimately closing the month lower near 25 reflecting the ongoing uncertainties regarding the conflict in Iran and the implications for broader markets. Among those implications was the possibility of an inflation shock in the near term due to rising energy prices, which put into question the future path of interest rates. This created uncertainty in interest‑rate markets, with traders briefly pricing in about a 35% chance of a Fed rate hike by December, before expectations dropped to near zero by the end of the month. Markets ultimately bounced off the lows in the final days of the month on renewed hope for a swift end to the conflict along with remarks from the current Fed Chair Jerome Powell that suggested inflation concerns were being dismissed for now.

After bouncing from gains to losses to start the year, equities ended March firmly in the red, driven by geopolitical uncertainties that have dominated headlines all month. Volatility (CBOE Volatility Index) spiked from roughly ~20 at the end of February to more than 31, before ultimately closing the month lower, near 25, reflecting the ongoing uncertainties regarding the conflict in Iran and the implications for broader markets. Among those implications was the possibility of an inflation shock in the near term due to rising energy prices, which put into question the future path of interest rates. This created uncertainty in interest‑rate markets, with traders briefly pricing in about a 35% chance of a Fed rate hike by December, before those expectations dropped to near zero by the end of the month. Markets ultimately bounced off the lows in the final days of the month on renewed hope for a swift end to the conflict, along with remarks from the current Fed Chair Jerome Powell that suggested inflation concerns were being dismissed for now.

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